How many times has your testing ideation gone something like this:
"We think changing the headline would boost conversions."
"We feel like this new button color will resonate better."
"What if adding more product info will reduce abandonment?"
If you're nodding along, I’ve got bad news - you're stuck in a "we think" rut. And let me tell you, that's a guaranteed way to run your program into the ground.
The “What If” Paradox
On one hand, relying on your team's gut instincts seems to make sense. They're experts who live and breathe this stuff, right? Surely their years of experience and know-how means their instincts are finely tuned to what will move the optimization needle.
Here's the harsh truth: that's all B.S. The more knowledge somebody has, the more biased and misaligned their instincts tend to be about what users actually think, feel, and want. Get far enough up the bureaucracy chain, and those top-down "instinctive" ideas getting handed to you are pretty much guaranteed to flop.
I'm talking flops like that major cloud-based storage solution that arrogantly invested millions into a full redesign because leadership just "felt" they needed a more modern, premium look. Want to guess how that went? User frustration spiked, conversions dropped by double-digits, and they ultimately had to walk back many changes after social media backlash. Examples like this are a harsh wake-up call that subjective vanity ≠ what works.
Or remember when Airbnb reps insisted on verbosely descriptive listing copy because "we think" more details aid booking decisions? The data-backed A/B test said hell no - turns out brevity won out big time.
This stuff happens all the time when teams are stuck in "we think" and “what if” land instead of actually listening to what research tells them customers want.
The Risk of Overconfidence
But wait, there's more! The real dangerous part about going with your gut is the illusion of confidence it creates. Teams get so sure their "what if" instincts are right, they go all-in on testing those ideas without an ounce of data to actually back it up.
Next thing you know, you've blown countless hours, buckets of cash, and what little program credibility you had on fundamentally flawed tests. All because somebody just had a hunch and overestimated how accurate their instincts would be.
I know competitor pressures, opinionated stakeholders, and the appeal of "innovative" ideas make it super tempting to jump straight into gut-based testing. But doing so is pretty much limiting your program out of the gate.
Solutions
At the end of the day, CRO is about delivering real, resonating value to your users while progressively improving KPIs. You can’t do that based on subjective instincts.
What you need is a research-driven approach that generates hypotheses from genuine customer insights. Here are a few of my favorites plus resources:
Empathy Mapping
Map out deep empathy with user mindsets, environments, and motivations. By stepping into your user’s shoes, new realizations emerge that can inspire fresh ideas.
Diary Studies
Conduct diary studies to experience organic journeys firsthand. You can do this by having them record details like pain points, motivations, and context to capture rich, in-the-moment qualitative data.
Resource: Moderated vs. Unmoderated User Testing
Social Listening
Listen in on the unsolicited convo happening across social channels
With a balanced mix of quantified behavior tracks and qualitative "why" insights like these and others, you can craft testing roadmaps centered around how users actually think and operate - not just how your team thinks they should. Check out our How to Turn Research Insights into Test Ideas training video.
TL;DR
Once you incorporate research into your tests, that’s when you start seeing legit results. Innovative test ideas unbound by subjective blinders. A continuous stream of fresh experimentation inspiration rooted in reality, not gut feelings. Most importantly, unwavering stakeholder confidence because every hypothesis is tightly data-backed.
So go ahead, be brutally honest with yourself: when was the last time your team broke free of "what if" instincts and got innovative through research? If you can't point to a recent example, it's long overdue. Your program's survival depends on leaving gut-based testing behind and embracing a whole new world of customer insights. The results will speak for themselves.
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