In the digital marketing arena, Conversion Rate Optimization (CRO) plays a critical role in turning browsers into buyers. But let's cut the fluff—successful CRO hinges on crafting solid, no-nonsense hypotheses. Here’s the real talk on building hypotheses that don’t just sound smart but actually work.
What is a hypothesis?
A hypothesis is a statement about a specific research question - and the key point is that it outlines the expected result of the experiment.
It is more than a fancy guess. It's a strategic bet on how a tweak to your site can change user behavior to hit your targets—like boosting sales or leads, not just b.s. metrics like pageviews. Anyone focused on the bottom line knows that what really matters is how these changes affect transactions and leads, not just clicks.
If you’re not sure what to even begin testing and hypothesizing about, check out our blog post about turning research into test ideas.
Building a Bulletproof Hypothesis
✅ Focus on Metrics That Matter: Forget vanity metrics. Your hypothesis should aim to impact key performance indicators (KPIs) that translate directly to your bottom line, such as conversion rates and average order value. [You can use our blog post about Money Metrics vs. B.S. Metrics to get you started.]
✅ Keep It Structured, Keep It Real: Stick to the “If… then… because…” format: It’s straightforward and keeps you honest about what you’re changing, what you expect to happen, and why. Example: "If we make the value proposition crystal clear right on the homepage, then bookings will spike because visitors instantly grasp what’s on offer."
✅ Know Your Audience Inside Out: Effective hypotheses are born from a deep understanding of who your users are and what drives their behavior. Use this insight to guide your proposed changes.
What to Avoid at All Costs
❌ Don’t Rely on Gut Feelings: Base your hypothesis on data, not hunches. Your creativity needs to be backed by analysis and real user data. Relying on gut feelings can lead you astray and waste resources - this is a fast-track to spaghetti testing. [We also wrote an entire blog post on why “what if” might be sabotaging your CRO testing and what to do about it.]
❌ Avoid Predicting Exact Numbers: Setting up exact numeric predictions sets you up for failure. CRO is about testing and learning, not crystal ball predictions. Predictions should be directional rather than precise to allow for flexible learning and adaptation.
❌ Skip the Fluffy Language: Drop words like "think," "feel," or "believe." They have no place in a hypothesis. Stick to what you can test and prove. Using vague language undermines the clarity and testability of your hypothesis, making it harder to derive meaningful insights.
Why Hypotheses Matter
Scientific Rigor: Hypotheses provide a structured approach to CRO, grounding your tests in scientific principles. This method ensures your results are not just random but are based on systematic inquiry and evidence, leading to more reliable and actionable insights.
Drive Targeted Testing: A sharp hypothesis focuses your efforts, helping you spend resources wisely and get to meaningful results faster.
Challenge Your Assumptions: It forces you to critically evaluate your beliefs about what will work, ensuring you’re not wasting time on ineffective tweaks.
Uncover Real Insights: Win or lose, every test teaches you something about your audience that you can use to refine your strategy and make smarter moves going forward.
Iterate for Greater Impact: No hypothesis is set in stone. Use what you learn from each test to improve your hypotheses and your testing strategy, gradually enhancing your site’s performance.
TL;DR
In CRO, your hypothesis is your roadmap. Without it, you’re just shooting in the dark. But remember, there’s no room for B.S. here—keep your hypotheses grounded in reality, focus on what impacts the bottom line, and always be ready to learn from the results. Forget guarantees and precise forecasts; they don’t exist in this game. What does exist is the opportunity to make informed bets that could pay off big for your business.
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